« GLOBAL WARMING. HUMAN ACTIVITY OR NATURAL PHENOMENON »
1Physical Electronics – Department of Petroleum and Natural Gas Tecnology,
Kavala Institute of Technology
2 Emeritus Professor, Department of Mineral Resources Engineering,
3 Professor Chem. Engineer, Department of Petroleum and Natural Gas Technology,
Kavala Institute of Technology,
Famous European scientists such as J.
Fourier , L. Agassiz  , J. Tyndal  and many more raised their concern
about climatic changes since Earth’s temperature, at that time, was rising.
These concerns prompted a number of other prominent scientists, de Saussure, R.
Bunsen, Max Pettenkoffer, Albert Kroch (Nobel Prize 1920) and Otto Warburg
(Nobel Prize 1931) to send air balloons equipped with special devices in the
Lower Atmosphere to trap the air and measure the atmospheric CO2
concentrations. For 151 years, 90000 measurements in 138 locations in 4
continents were carried out showing atmospheric CO2 concentrations
to vary from 290 ppm to 450 ppm (1820) with mean concentration for the 19th
century of 322 ppm. This prompted S. Arrehnius, in 1986, to correlate the
increase of atmospheric CO2 with the rise of temperature.The temperature increase since 1850,
that is after the Little Ice Age, is +
Atmospheric CO2 increase does not follow temperature increase. Sometimes it coincides, 1980 to 1998, sometimes not, 1999-2003, and sometimes deviates substantially, 2004-2008. This behavior indicates that the continuous and increasing use of hydrocarbons cannot be connected with the erratic temperature behavior. Therefore it seems that atmospheric CO2 concentrations are not the driving force behind climatic changes but there are other extraterrestrial drivers such as sunspots.
Keywords: climatic changes, atmospheric CO2, mean Annual Temperatures, Observatory, Sun spot number
Climatic changes and their causes have been put forward by the United Nations administration, public media and various environmental groups in order to show that there is an unprecedented temperature increase due to high atmospheric CO2 levels. The latter is derived from human activities. As a result of these activities ice caps will melt, resulting in the rise of sea water. These statements create a phobia which leads to hysteria. We do not deny the existence of a serious environmental problem but the use of fear to achieve any goal does not suit serious scientists.
2. Main Subject
Climatic changes have
been the subject of concern since the middle of the 18th century
(Martin, Wikipedia 2009, Ice Age). Since then a great number of scientists
tried to resolve the causes which promote such a behavior. Fourier, in 1782 with his work of “Theorie
Fig.1. Evidence of variability of atmospheric CO2 concentration during the 20th century in the Northern Hemisphere .
These measurements led S. Arrhenius
 to formulate the “Theory of Global warming by greenhouse gases the so
called Green House Effect”. This theory states that if the atmospheric CO2
levels increase by 2,5 to 3 times, presumably 900 ppm to 1200 ppm, temperatures
in Northern and Southern Poles will increase by 8 to 9. In tantrum with these developments, Quaternary Geology was developed
in all universities and Geological services to solve the advance (Glacial Periods)
and retreat (Interglacial Periods) of Ice Fields from the continents. All these
scientific work has never been acknowledged by the scientists working for the
United Nations because in 1820 the atmospheric CO2 concentration was
quite high, 450 ppm, and the temperature was +
Another aspect which have been ignored is that
in the Quaternary during each Interglacial Period, which lasted over 20000
years, temperatures ranged from +
Finally one wonders if atmospheric CO2
concentrations measured in the air bubbles enclosed
in the ice cores reflect paleoatmospheric CO2 concentrations.
Besides the deviation from what was measured by the European scientists one
questions the following: How come with an increase of +
Fig.2.Climatic changes as documented from Vosto-1 icecore data , and EPICA ice core data, EPICA, 2004, for the last 450000 years. Worth noticing is the rise of temperature well above the today’s one during the long interglacial periods without the complete melting of the ice caps.
Fig. 3. Time lag between maximum temperatures and atmospheric CO2 concentration during the Quaternary..
Thus, a team of intellectuals and scientists that emanate mainly from
the positive sciences, they decided to resist to the climate of hysteria that
has been created. Characteristic it is the case of astrophysicist Piers Corbyn,
 author of Long-term Forecast of Solar Activity. This scientist rejects
completely the theory that the CO2 is person in charge for Global
Warming and the climatic change and he claims that it exists no element that
would announce that the CO2 increase
the temperature. This confirms also the measurements of CO2
in atmosphere from the most approved station of the world, Mauna Loa
Fig.4. Atmospheric CO2 concentration from 1958, 315ppm, to 2008, 385 ppm, Atmospheric CO2 at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii, USA..
It is obvious that the change of centesimal composition of atmosphere at 7 thousandth in the 50 years does not justify the concern and catastrophism that promotes us certain scientists. It is not scientifically acceptable that the increase of atmospheric composition, least from 1 molecule (substantially 0,7 molecules) CO2 in 10000 molecules of gases that compose atmosphere can cause Global Warming.
Fig. 5. Atmospheric CO2 increase during the last 50 years expressed as a percent of the total air composition. It is the, non discernible, blue line in the bottom. It is very indiscernable azure (blue) line in the down part of diagram. The all surface above the azure line him they constitute remainder airy that composes atmosphere .
3. The carbon dioxide is a thermostat of the planet?
In the antipode of the opinion that the CO2 in the atmosphere is the planet’s thermostat, we consider in conclusion the following arguments:
2. Relation between temperature and CO2. There is no connection between them. Perhaps they are connected in some complex way, but there is no element establishing that the CO2 systematically raises the temperature. In reality, since 1998, temperature levels worldwide have fallen (figures 6 and 10).
3. Measurements of CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere in the last 10 years (1998-2008), conducted by Mauna Loa Observatory (Hawaii, USA), as well as measurements of Average Annual Temperatures of Earth’s Surface, UK's Hadley Climate Research Unit, mean Annual Temperatures of Lower Troposphere, NASA, Microwave Sounding Unit (figure 6), show indisputably that there is no relation between CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere and the mean Annual Temperature of Earth’s Surface and the mean Annual Temperature of Lower Troposphere. While the concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere went up by 77.8 billion tones compared to 1998-levels, the temperatures not only didn’t go up, but from 2006 onwards they have decreased.
Figure 6. World temperature is falling
while atmospheric CO2 is rising. Data for a) Mean Temperature of Earth’s Surface:
4. Relation of Temperature to Solar Activity
The fundamental periodicity of changes in temperature corresponds to the 22-year magnetic cycle of the Sun (figure 7). The current 22-year cycle has reached its peak in the years 2002 and 2003, while we currently observe a decreasing trend (figure 8). In 2002 and 2003, the fluctuating mean temperature reached its peak, which coincides with the phase of the natural 22-year cycle. Thus, we can conclude that mean global temperatures don’t increase; in the last 10 years, up to 2002, there has been however a climax of the natural cycle, which is connected with the magnetic 22-year cycle of the Sun.
Fig.7. Sun spot number variations from 1700 AD to 1995 AD..
Fig. 8. Eleven (11) year sunspot cycle from 1995 to present. The fluctuation of sunspot numbers is characteristic..
According to our research: CO2 temperature and consumed quantity of hydrocarbons, are observed the followings.
1. From 1850 until today, that is to say for
158 years, the mean Annual Temperatures of the Earth’s Surface amounted to +
10). Results from the famous Climatic Research Unit of the
Fig. 9. Left: Mean global-mean anomalies. Right: Global map of surface temperature anomalies for 2008. (Credit: NASA GISS)..
Fig. 10. Global temperature record 1850-2008..
2. From 1910 until 1940, that is to say for 30 years, Mean Annual Temperatures of the Earth’s Surface increased by + 0.6even though we have only consumed up to the 8% of the total consumed quantity of hydrocarbons, (Figure 10 and 11).
3. From 1940 until 1975, that is to say for 35 years, Mean Annual Temperatures of the Earth’s Surface decreased by + 0.2though we have consumed only 40% of the total consumed quantity of hydrocarbons.
4. From 1975 until 1998, that is to say for 23 years , Mean Annual Temperatures of the Earth’s Surface increased by + 0.4, (Figure 10 and 11), even though we have consumed up to 38% of the total consumed quantity of hydrocarbons.
Fig.11. Correlation between sunspot cycle length, temperature anomalies and atmospheric CO2 concentration..
5. From 1999 until 2007 the Mean Annual Temperatures of Earth’s Surface remained constant in + 0.4, (figure 12, 13, 14, 15 and 16), even though we have consumed up to 12% of the total, consumed quantity of hydrocarbons.
Fig. 14 .
Fig.15 Remote Sensing Systems of
6. From January 2007 until January 2008 the Mean Annual Temperatures of Earth’s Surface cut down at - 0.64, (Table 1), that is the mean of fall which was recorded by the all stations. Figure 10 (last green bar).
Table 1. For all four metrics the global average, ΔT for January 2007 to January 2008 is:-0.6405°C. .
7. If we compare figures 1, 4, 6 and 10, we see clearly that there is not any relation between the increase of Average Annual Temperature of Earth’s Surface and atmospheric CO2
Fig.16.Global average temperature history (January 1979 through January 2008) of the lower troposphere as produced by researchers at the University of Alabama-Huntsville (UAH, blue line) and from Remote Sensing Systems (RSS, red line)..
Hence, these narrow-range fluctuations of
temperature do not foretell devastating phenomena for the human race, because
it is virtually impossible to predict the future long-term development of a
system, which is influenced by multiple factors, a system which is complex and
mainly chaotic, such as the climate. There is though another reason: in the
recent past of the human kind (Paleolithic era, Roman period, Byzantium and
Middle Ages), the temperatures oscillated from
Fig.17. Αverage near surface temperatures of the northern hemisphere during the past 11000 years. , .
big climatic changes (period of glaciation, period of interglacial) (Figure
2 and 3), they are attributed in the orbital system of earth around the
sun, circles of Milankovitch, that became scientifically acceptable , while
the microclimatic changes, inside interglacial era, they are attributed in the
elation of not solar blots and the effect of solar winds, roughly 40000
tons/annually, , . Sunspots are
storms on the sun’s surface that are marked by intense magnetic activity and
host solar flares and hot gassy ejections from the sun’s corona. The number of
spots on the sun cycles over time reaches a peak, the so-called Solar Maximum,
every 11 years. Solar winds, according to NASA’s
The big problem that humanity faces today is not the increase of atmospheric CO2, because this subject disorientates the governments and the entire world from the befalling whirlwind that is the lack of cheap energy raw materials, (figure 18). For this reason, we have to turn ourselves immediately in financing the growth of Renewable Energy Sources, putting in second fate the costliest financing and inquiring programs that are related with the reduction or the capture of emitted CO2.
Fig.18.World consumption of primary energy and world increase of population between 1850-2005 .
6.Results and Conclusions
1. The climatic changes were the subject of regular research of European scientists from the beginning of 19th century. The ignorance of all the work done and of its full results places huge question marks in the world scientific community that deals during the last 20 years, with the climatic changes.
2. There is not any relation between the concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere and the Mean Annual Temperature of Earth’s Surface. This appears of course:
a. From the delay of Annual Mean maximum Temperature of Earth’s Surface in relation with the highest Concentration of CO2 in Atmosphere.
b. From the Annual Mean Temperatures of Earth’s Surface, UK's Hadley Climate Research Unit, the Mean Annual Temperatures of Low Troposphere, [NASA], Microwave Sounding Unit, and the increase of concentrations of atmospheric CO2, Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii, USA. On a five-year period, while the concentrations of CO2 in atmosphere are increasing, the temperatures are falling, a fact that outbids the opinion that the hydrocarbons are not the only source of CO2 in the atmosphere, but also that they do not influence the Mean Annual Temperature of Earth’s Surface . This is also confirmed:
g. From the big concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere in 1820, 450 ppm, in 1860, 395 ppm and in 1940, 395 ppm, when the use of hydrocarbons was null or too small.
3. The concentrations of CO2
in the atmosphere have increased by 70 ppm, during the last fifty-year period,
according to the measurements made by Mauna
4. The increase of temperature from the end of Little Ice Age season that lasted from 1350 - 1850 was of the order of + 0,70 , with a lot of fluctuations. The rise of temperature was of the order of +0,44/100 years. The rise of Annual Mean Temperature of Earth’s Surface by +0,4 or +0,3 above the 15 (the normal Annual Mean Temperature of Earth’s Surface), during the last 68 years, and with reducing tendencies during the last 4 years, cannot be considered as something excessive and worrying, because such fluctuations we had noticed from the last Ice Age season (18000 BC till 1850 AD).
5. The increase of Annual Mean
Temperature of Earth’s Surface
should be attributed in the effect of solar blots that create the solar winds.
The last ones turn away the incident lactic ashes that are the cause of
creation or not of the clouds, depending on the intensity of solar winds.
Virtually, the micro-fluctuations of the temperatures are due to the “number
6. The micro-fluctuations of the temperatures are not forebode for devastating phenomena for the human gender, because substantially it is impossible to be forecasted, for the next 50 or 100 years, the future development of such a multi-factorial, complicated and mainly chaotic system, as it is the climate.
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